Lululemon Stock Plummets 55.9% This Year, But November Signals Possible Recovery

After losing more than half its value this year, Lululemon Athletica is showing signs of life. The Vancouver-based athletic apparel giant, once a Wall Street darling, closed at $168.18 on November 20, 2025 — a staggering 55.9% drop from its January opening price, according to StatMuse Money. But something shifted in November. After a brutal September that saw a single-day crash of $38.29 (-18.58%) on September 5, with over 36 million shares traded, the stock has quietly begun to climb. By November 28, pre-market trading hit $183.60. The market isn’t declaring victory yet, but it’s no longer panic-selling.

September’s Bloodbath and the Slow Climb Back

The real collapse came in early September. On September 5, Lululemon’s stock plunged from a high of $176.18 to a low of $163.98 in one day, closing at $167.80. Volume spiked to 36.8 million shares — more than triple its 30-day average. Investors were fleeing, spooked by weak earnings, shifting consumer habits, and mounting competition from Nike and Amazon’s private-label activewear. But here’s the twist: the next day, the stock didn’t keep falling. It bounced. And then it kept bouncing — unevenly, nervously, but consistently.

By September 12, the stock hit a 2025 low of $159.87. That was the bottom. Since then, every weekly close has been higher than the last. On November 25, it closed at $171.55, up from $177.51 open — a sign that buyers were stepping in at lower levels. It’s not a rally. It’s a crawl. But crawls can turn into runs.

Forecasts Point to a Rebound — But With Caveats

LongForecast.com’s November 2025 projection is telling: an opening price of $171, a minimum of $160, a maximum of $197, and a closing price of $182 — a 6.4% monthly gain. December? Even more optimistic: open at $182, peak at $221, close at $185. That’s a 38% potential upside from the November low. It’s not a guarantee, but it’s a pattern investors are watching closely.

Real-time data backs this up. StockAnalysis.com showed LULU at $181.94 on November 26, up 2.5%. TradingView reported $185.40 as of the latest update — a 2.5% gain in just 24 hours. These aren’t anomalies. They’re signals. Retail investors, hedge funds, and algorithmic traders are all starting to re-evaluate Lululemon’s long-term brand strength.

Still, the longer-term forecasts are chilling. January 2026 is projected to close at $178 — a 3.8% drop from December. By October 2028, the model predicts a closing price of $106. November 2028? $90. That’s a 70% decline from today’s levels. Either these projections are wildly off — or they’re warning of structural challenges ahead: aging demographics, overexpansion, and a saturated premium athleisure market.

Why This Matters Beyond the Stock Chart

Lululemon isn’t just a stock. It’s a cultural icon. Its yoga pants are worn from Vancouver to Vermont. Its stores are temples of wellness culture. But when the brand starts feeling more like a luxury accessory than a necessity, sales slow. And that’s what happened. After years of double-digit growth, demand softened. The company’s 2025 product launches didn’t ignite the same frenzy. Its digital sales growth stalled. Meanwhile, rivals like Alo Yoga and Outdoor Voices carved out loyal niches with better pricing and social media traction.

The recovery isn’t about the stock price. It’s about whether Lululemon can rekindle its magic. Can it innovate beyond leggings? Can it win back Gen Z without alienating its core 35-55 female customer? Can it stop relying on hype and start building real value?

What’s Next? Volatility Won’t Disappear

The next quarter’s earnings report — due in late January — will be critical. If same-store sales show even a modest uptick, the stock could surge toward $200. If not, the bear case kicks in hard. Analysts at Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan are split. One says Lululemon is “a value trap masquerading as a growth stock.” The other calls it “the last standing premium activewear brand with real loyalty.”

One thing’s clear: the market isn’t done with Lululemon. The wild swings in September, the quiet rebound in November, the conflicting forecasts — they all point to one truth. This isn’t over. And it never will be.